水科学进展2013，Vol.24Issue(4)：490-496,7.
基于中国气象资料的趋势检验方法对比分析
Comparison of three Mann-Kendall methods based on the China's meteorological data
摘要
Abstract
Trend test is an essential topic in climate change research.Three trend test methods,Mann-Kendall,PreWhitening Mann-Kendall and Trend-Free Pre-Whitening Mann-Kendall,are employed to analyze trends and autocorrelations of annual precipitation,pan evaporation and average air temperature spatially and temporally across China.The meteorological variables are observed at 317 stations during the period 1956-2005.Specifically,the autocorrelation of annual precipitation is insignificant,resulting in the similar trend analysis results for the three methods.While both annual pan evaporation and average temperature exhibit significant autocorrelations,which result in distinct trend test results using the three methods.Thus,the autocorrelation must be properly considered when conducting a trend test for both annual pan evaporation and average air temperature.In general,meteorological data from northern basins has a more significant autocorrelation than the southern one.In addition,the effects of trend on the estimated autocorrelation coefficient and correlation on the Mann-Kendall statistics are also investigated theoretically.Results indicate that the positive correlation magnifies the series trend significance and the trend existed in the series may contaminate the lag-1 autocorrelation coefficient in turn.关键词
Mann-Kendall趋势检验/自相关系数/气候变化Key words
Mann-Kendall trend test/ autocorrelation coefficient/ climate change分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
章诞武,丛振涛,倪广恒..基于中国气象资料的趋势检验方法对比分析[J].水科学进展,2013,24(4):490-496,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(50979039 （）
50939004) （）
The study is financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.50979039 （）
No.50939004). （）
