水科学进展2013，Vol.24Issue(4)：497-503,7.
洪水预报产流误差的动态系统响应曲线修正方法
Runoff error correction in real-time flood forecasting based on dynamic system response curve
摘要
Abstract
To improve the accuracy of real-time flood forecasting,a new effective error correction method based on dynamic system response curve (DSRC) was proposed in this paper.The dynamic system response curve was introduced to construct a dynamic error updating model for correcting the flood forecasting errors.In this study,the water sources separation and watershed concentration modules of the Xin'anjiang model were utilized as a response system.Substituting the linear difference for partial differential values of the response function in a nonlinear system,the system response curves of runoff time series can be obtained.Based on the observed and calculated discharge,the calculated runoff was corrected using the least square estimation,and the discharge hydrograph was recalculated with the corrected runoff.The method was tested in both ideal scenario and real case study.Comparing to the second-order autoregressive error forecast model,the new method can significantly improve the accuracy of real-time flood forecasting.The new method has a simple structure without newly introduced parameters and effective.关键词
洪水预报/误差修正/系统响应曲线/最小二乘估计/新安江模型Key words
flood forecasting/ error correction/ system response curve/ least square estimation/ Xin'anjiang model分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
司伟,包为民,瞿思敏..洪水预报产流误差的动态系统响应曲线修正方法[J].水科学进展,2013,24(4):497-503,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51190090 （）
51279057) （）
The study is financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51190090 （）
No.51279057). （）
