中国人口·资源与环境2013，Vol.23Issue(6)：103-110,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-2104.2013.06.015
产业-就业结构变动与中国城市化发展趋势
Impact of the Change in Industrial and Employment Structure on Urbanization in China:An Empirical Analysis Based on the VEC Model
摘要
Abstract
This paper,based on a macro view,dynamically focuses on analyzing the relevance between the upgrade of industrial & employment structure and the urbanization trend,in the process of transformation of China' s economic system since 1978.A time sequence analysis shows that in this economic system there is a one-way causality:the change of industrial structure leads to the change of employment structure,which leads to the change of urbanization rate.Using the "Vector Error Correction Model (VEC Model) ",in which the urbanization rate,output of the primary,secondary and tertiary industries and employment proportion have been taken as endogenous variables,the analytic result shows that the changes of industrial and employment structure are strong short-term driving forces on urbanization,among which the change of the third industry is the strongest; however,in long term this driving force weakens gradually,which means under the existing change pattern it will be difficult to generate more driving force on urbanization.The policy side of implications of this study are:a) Only through upgrading the industrial & employment structure can there be a greater driving force on urbanization.b) To upgrade,efforts must be made to solve the issue that the employment structure of the second industry bears a large deviation.c) Implementing Omni-directional economical and social reform to crack the mechanism of dual social structure.In this case,the deviation can be narrowed and it will boost China' s healthy and sustainable urbanization development.关键词
产业结构/就业结构/城市化/VEC模型Key words
industrial structure/ employment structure/ urbanization/ VEC Model分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
何景熙,何懿..产业-就业结构变动与中国城市化发展趋势[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013,23(6):103-110,8.基金项目
国家教育部2010年度人文社会科学规划基金项目"统筹城乡综合配套改革下的区域城市化道路:成渝试验区实证研究"(编号:10YJA790067). （编号:10YJA790067）
