中国人口·资源与环境2013，Vol.23Issue(6)：138-142,5.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-2104.2013.06.020
宏观变量对中国农产品贸易平衡的影响
Effects of Macroeconomic Factors on China' s Agricultural Trade Balance
摘要
Abstract
With the acceleration of the commercialization,macroeconomic factors have more and more significant impacts on China's agricultural sector.This paper explores the effects of macroeconomic factors,for example agricultural price,domestic production,exchange rate and income,on agricultural trade balance.We use cointegration analysis and the vector error-correction model with quarterly data from 2000 to 2008.We find agricultural production and disposable income have significant effects on the agricultural trade balance in the long run.On the contrary,exchange rate and agricultural price have insignificant effects.Results show that the main function of China' s agricultural trade is to regulate domestic supply and demand,not the commercial feature.关键词
农产品/贸易平衡/宏观变量/协整检验/误差修正Key words
agricultural commodity / trade balance/ macroeconomic variables cointegration / error correction model分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
李德峰,杜亚雄..宏观变量对中国农产品贸易平衡的影响[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013,23(6):138-142,5.基金项目
国家社科重大项目"我国鲜活农产品价格形成、波动机制与和调控政策研究"(编号:12&ZD048) （编号:12&ZD048）
国家自然科学基金青年项目"货币政策冲击与农产品价格超调研究"(编号:70803057). （编号:70803057）
