海洋预报2013，Vol.30Issue(4)：93-102,10.DOI:10.11737/j.issn.1003-0239.2013.04.013
21世纪初海洋预报系统发展现状和趋势
Development status and trends of ocean forecasting system in the 21st Century
摘要
Abstract
Ocean forecast is the basis of human marine activities.The human demand on ocean environment information drives ocean forecast to advance,with the development of ocean observing system,data assimilation,ocean numerical modeling,and supercomputer.The most popular ocean models are NLOM,NCOM,HYCOM,NEMO,MOM,POM,and ROMS et al.During the GODAE and GODAE OceanView programs,the global ocean operational forecast systems develop and prosper fastly through international cooperation and intercommunion.At the beginning of the 21th century,the highest horizontal resolution of global ocean forecast systems is 1/32°× 1/32°,and the longest forecast lead-time is 60 days.Some high resolution global ocean forecast systems can predict and diagnose ocean eddy and front.In the future,ocean forecast systems will do better with higher resolution and less forecast bias,and will provide ecological and biogeochemical forecast.Ocean data assimilation,physical process parameterization and model coupling are crucial for ocean forecast development in the future关键词
海洋预报/海洋模式/数值预报/GODAE/数据同化Key words
ocean forecast/ ocean model/ numerical forecast/GODAE分类
海洋科学引用本文复制引用
方长芳,张翔,尹建平..21世纪初海洋预报系统发展现状和趋势[J].海洋预报,2013,30(4):93-102,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(40706004) （40706004）
