水力发电学报2013，Vol.32Issue(4)：46-50,56,6.
基于Copula-Monte Carlo方法的串联施工导流系统风险分析
Risk analysis of cascade construction diversion system based on Copula-Monte Carlo method
摘要
Abstract
This paper puts forth a risk measurement method for a cascade construction diversion system of two hydropower stations that are constructed synchronously in the same river basin.By coupling the main risk factors,a risk simulation model of cascade construction diversion system was developed with a holistic risk analysis approach taking into account the correlation of upriver hydropower station construction flood with interval-basin flood.A two-dimensional Copula function was used to analyze the correlative structure of two regional construction flood peaks,a joint probability distribution was established,and then a Copula-Monte Carlo method was applied to the simulation of cascade construction flood.An engineering case was analyzed and compared with a random simulation method that ignores the correlation of these two construction floods,and the results show that the new method gives better simulations.Thus,this study provides new methods and theories for construction diversion risk assessment of hydroelectric cascade development.关键词
串联施工导流系统/风险分析/Copula-Monte Carlo方法/Copula函数/梯级施工洪水Key words
cascade construction diversion system/ risk analysis/ Copula-Monte Carlo method/ Copula function/ cascade construction flood分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
张超,胡志根,刘全..基于Copula-Monte Carlo方法的串联施工导流系统风险分析[J].水力发电学报,2013,32(4):46-50,56,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(51079115,10902078) （51079115,10902078）
