北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）2013，Vol.49Issue(5)：496-500,5.
基于统计建模与随机事件仿真的农作物冰雹灾害风险评估——以河北省为例
HAILFALL RISK ASSESSMENT OF CROP DAMAGE BY STATISTICAL MODELING AND RANDOM SIMULATION:CASE OF HEBEI
摘要
Abstract
Hailfall is a complex natural disaster,it is difficult to forecast but it results in great losses.To estimate crop loss due to hailfall is quite important.Historical crop loss due to hailfall in Hebei province from 1949-2000 was used to assess hail risk with statistical modeling and stochastic simulation by software packages Arena and Matlab.Crop losses of the simulated events were used to derive loss probability curves as formal presentation of hail disaster risk of crop damage in Hebei Province.It was found that annual crop damage in Heibei province was 1.9 ％.关键词
风险评估/农作物/冰雹灾害/河北Key words
risk assessment/ crop hail disaster/ Hebei province引用本文复制引用
刘杨宾,叶涛,赵金涛,杨赛霓..基于统计建模与随机事件仿真的农作物冰雹灾害风险评估——以河北省为例[J].北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）,2013,49(5):496-500,5.基金项目
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金资助项目(41001357) （41001357）
