电子学报Issue(3)：417-423,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.0372-2112.2014.03.001
基于小波分析的导弹装备备件需求组合预测
Combination Forecasting of Missile Equipment Spare Parts Demand Based on Wavelet Analysis
赵建忠 1徐廷学 1李海军 1叶文1
作者信息
- 1. 海军航空工程学院 兵器科学与技术系，山东烟台264001
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
Due to the non-stability and non-linearity characteristic of missile equipment spare parts demand ,the thought of wavelet analysis theory used on missile equipment spare parts demand forecasting .The best grading of its decomposition of wavelet was determined in terms of the collective evaluation index ,and spare parts demand time series were decomposed into different scales in order to reduce the randomicity and volatility of original time series ;The high frequency signals were forecasted with ARMA model optimized by the improved self-adaptive intergeneration projection genetic algorithm and damping least-squares method ,and the low frequency was forecasted with GM (1 ,1 ) model ;the respective forecast result were integrated to get the forecast value of the original time series .Through an experiment of missile equipment spare parts demand ,the feasibility and effectiveness of this method was proven .关键词
备件/需求预测/小波分析/灰色模型/自回归移动平均模型Key words
spare parts/demand forecasting/wavelet analysis/grey model/ARMA(Atuo-Regressive Moving Average)model分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
赵建忠,徐廷学,李海军,叶文..基于小波分析的导弹装备备件需求组合预测[J].电子学报,2014,(3):417-423,7.
