电力需求侧管理Issue(6)：1-5,5.
考虑积温效应的夏季日最大负荷预测研究
Study on summer daily peak load forecasting considering the accumulation effect of temperature
张庆华 1王云洁 1卢毅1
作者信息
- 1. 东南大学 电气工程学院，南京 210096
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
In the case of sustained high temperatures for sever-al days in summer, the temperature of several days before the day to be predicted has a significant impact on the peak load of that day for the accumulation effect of temperature. Therefore, considering this effect in the forecasting model has significant importance to the im-provement of forecasting precision of summer daily peak load. A fuzzy reasoning system is built, which takes the temperature of sus-tained high temperature period, last days and the temperature of fore-casting day for inputs and correction amount of temperature for out-put. The daily temperature in summer is amended by the output of the fuzzy reasoning system. Result of case study shows that the pro-posed method is capable of tracking the daily peak load and improv-ing the precision of load forecasting.关键词
电力系统/积温效应/模糊推理/气温修正/日最大负荷预测Key words
power system/accumulation effect of temper-ature/fuzzy reasoning system/temperature correction/daily peak load forecasting分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
张庆华,王云洁,卢毅..考虑积温效应的夏季日最大负荷预测研究[J].电力需求侧管理,2013,(6):1-5,5.
