电力系统自动化Issue(1)：38-43,6.DOI:10.7500/AEPS201212139
配电网可靠性概率分布的解析模型和非参数估计
Analytical Approach and Nonparametric Kernel Estimation to Compute Probability Distributions for Reliability Indices of Distribution Systems
摘要
Abstract
An analytical model and non-parametric kernel density estimation approach are proposed for probability distribution calculation of distribution system reliability indices.In view of the fact that the time for work and repair of the system components is exponentially and non-exponentially distributed,analytical characterization for the reliability indices of the distribution network is conducted from the system level and the nodal layer using the random function, respectively. Furthermore,by referring to the non-parametric kernel density estimation technology,the probability distribution calculation is implemented for the expression of the reliability indices random function.With this method,it can be seen that taking into account that the time for work and repair of components will make the estimation results closer to engineering practice. Simulation results of RBTS-BUS6 system show that the proposed method is effective.关键词
配电网可靠性/概率分布/解析模型/非参数估计Key words
distribution network reliability/probability distribution/analytical model/nonparametric kernel estimation引用本文复制引用
赵渊,袁蓉,芦晶晶..配电网可靠性概率分布的解析模型和非参数估计[J].电力系统自动化,2014,(1):38-43,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(50977094,50607021) （50977094,50607021）
输配电装备及系统安全与新技术国家重点实验室自主研究项目(2007DA10512711208) （2007DA10512711208）
重庆市自然科学基金资助项目(CSTC,2011BB6047)。 （CSTC,2011BB6047）
