电力系统自动化Issue(1)：51-56,6.DOI:10.7500/AEPS201209113
计及排污权交易和多种不确定性的发电投资决策
Generation Investment Decision-making in Emission Trading Environment with Multiple Uncertainties
寻斌斌 1文福拴 2黎小林 3文安 1傅闯1
作者信息
- 1. 南方电网科学研究院，广东省广州市 510080
- 2. 南方电网控制保护创新中心，广东省广州市 510623
- 3. 浙江大学电气工程学院，浙江省杭州市 310027
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
As uncertainties for generation investment have increased after the implementation of emission right trading,the traditional net present value analysis is unable to meet the needs of power generation investment decision making.Firstly, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity is used to describe the price of electricity,coal,natural gas,emission rights and cost of carbon capture and storage (CCS).Secondly,according to the real option theory,a real option model is developed to help investors make decisions in face of various uncertainty factors,such as fluctuations of electricity price,fuel price and emission rights price,policy change,carbon capture and storage technology development.Investors should choose to invest in conventional coal-fired power,combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) units or wind power,nuclear power and other forms of renewable energy.Finally,Monte Carlo simulation is used to determine the options for each investment project and its best investment time.The effectiveness of the model is verified.关键词
发电投资/广义自回归条件异方差模型/排污权交易/实物期权/蒙特卡洛模拟Key words
generation investment/generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH)/emission right trading/real options/Monte Carlo simulation引用本文复制引用
寻斌斌,文福拴,黎小林,文安,傅闯..计及排污权交易和多种不确定性的发电投资决策[J].电力系统自动化,2014,(1):51-56,6.
