电网技术Issue(2)：463-468,6.DOI:10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2014.02.029
考虑预报风速与功率曲线因素的风电功率预测不确定性估计
Uncertainty Evaluation of Wind Power Prediction Considering Impacts of Power Curve and Predicted Wind Speed
摘要
Abstract
The wind speed from numerical weather prediction and power curve of wind power generation units, which affect wind power prediction uncertainty, are analyzed. In the aspects of time and wind speed level the quantitative evaluation uncertainty of predicted wind speed is performed and two kinds of synthetic uncertainty evaluation models are proposed. The theoretical power curve of wind turbine and the uncertainty of its power curve under actual operation as well as the impact of inherent characteristic of the power curve on uncertainty of power prediction are analyzed. On this basis, an industrialization model for uncertainty evaluation of power prediction is put forward. The reliability and accuracy of the proposed model in engineering application are verified by case study.关键词
风电功率预测/不确定性估计/数值天气预报/功率曲线Key words
wind power prediction/uncertainty evaluation/numerical weather prediction/power curve分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
王勃,冯双磊,刘纯..考虑预报风速与功率曲线因素的风电功率预测不确定性估计[J].电网技术,2014,(2):463-468,6.基金项目
国家863高技术基金项目(2011AA05A101)。The National High Technology Research and Development of China(863 Program)(2011AA05A101) （2011AA05A101）
