电网技术Issue(3)：628-632,5.DOI:10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2014.03.013
基于随机性环境影响评估模型的电力消费和碳排放关系实证分析
Empirical Analysis on Relation Between Electricity Consumption and Carbon Emission Based on Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology Model
摘要
Abstract
There are close relationship among carbon emission, energy consumption, population and economic growth, and as the clean secondary energy source the consumption of electricity impacts the structure of energy consumption, and further impacts the energy consumption, therefore, that what kind of relation between electricity consumption intensity and carbon emission exist is an issue needed to be considered in the low-carbonization of electric power sector. Using stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence and technology (STRIPAT) model, the carbon emission impacting coefficients among carbon emission, population, per capita GNP, electricity consumption and energy consumption are calculated by partial least squares regression. The research finds that each 1% variation in the ratio of population, per capita GNP and electricity consumption to energy consumption leads to 1.207%, 0.901% and -1.188%variation in the total carbon emission, thus under the condition of population growth slowed and the growth of national economy kept above 7%, the reduction of carbon emission should be started from improving technical ability, namely raising the proportion of electricity utilization in energy consumption, improving utilization efficiency of fossil fuels and developing renewable energy sources.关键词
随机性环境影响评估模型/碳排放/电力消费/回归模型Key words
STRIPAT/carbon emissions/electricity consumption/regression model分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
王建军,李莉..基于随机性环境影响评估模型的电力消费和碳排放关系实证分析[J].电网技术,2014,(3):628-632,5.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(71071052,71071054)；中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(12QN27)。@@@@Project Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (71071052,71071054) （71071052,71071054）
Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (12QN27) （12QN27）
