南方医科大学学报Issue(1)：88-91,4.
五种预后模型对中国布-加综合征的预测价值
Predictive value of five prognostic models for Budd-Chiari syndrome in China
摘要
Abstract
Objective To compare the predictive value of 5 prognostic models (Child-Pugh scoring, Clichy prognostic index [PI], New Clichy PI, Rotterdam BCS index, and BCS-TIPS PI) for Budd-Chiari syndrome (BCS) in China. Methods The clinical data of 123 patients with BCS were retrospectively analyzed, among whom 99 survived and 24 died. The indices of the 5 prognostic models were respectively calculated, and each index was compared by F-test between the survival and death groups. The area under curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity of the models were computed and analyzed by receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curve. Results The indices of Child-Pugh, Clichy, New Clichy and Rotterdam BCS Index models in the death group (8.792 ± 2.0, 5.924 ± 0.783, 5.695 ± 1.81, and 0.615 ± 1.133, respectively) were significantly higher than those in the survival group (7.141 ± 1.443, 5.221 ± 0.834, 3.981 ± 1.033, and-0.148 ± 0.896, respectively, P<0.01), and only BCS-TIPS model had no significant difference between the two groups (P>0.05). The AUC of the 5 indices were 0.738, 0.720, 0.776, 0.721, and 0.502, with Youden indices of 0.370, 0.410, 0.439, 0.473, and 0.051, respectively. Conclusion Child-Pugh scoring, Clichy PI, New Clichy PI, and Rotterdam BCS Index models can distinguish survival from death in BCS patients in China. New Clichy PI has the highest predictive value and is suitable for use in China, whereas the other models have relatively low predictive values, among which BCS-TIPS model is not advisable. Meanwhile effort should be made to establish a prognostic model for BCS in China.关键词
布-加综合征/预后模型/预后指数/受试者工作特征曲线Key words
Budd-Chiari syndrome/prognostic models/prognostic index/receiver-operator characteristic curve引用本文复制引用
张科,徐浩,祖茂衡,魏宁..五种预后模型对中国布-加综合征的预测价值[J].南方医科大学学报,2014,(1):88-91,4.基金项目
江苏省科技创新与成果转化专项 （）
