工程设计学报Issue(1)：27-31,5.DOI:10.3785/j.issn.1006-754X.2014.01.005
在役腐蚀管道动态非概率可靠性分析
Time-dependent non-probability reliability analysis of corroded pipeline in service
摘要
Abstract
Corrosion is one of the primary failure mode of pressurized pipelines .Research on relia-bility of the corroded pipelines has important theoretical significance and application value .Ade-quate data is necessary for probabilistic reliability model and fuzzy reliability model used to ana-lyze the reliability of corroded pipelines .In case of insufficient information was available ,the un-certain parameters of yield strength ,pipeline diameter ,defect depths ,operating pressure and so on were described as interval variables to make up the gap by using the uncertain information of the corroded pipelines well .Time-dependent non-probability reliability model of the corroded pipeline in service was established based on the interval model .A simple method for the remaining life prediction of the corroded pipelines was given .A numerical example had been used to illustrate the proposed method .T he result show s that the proposed method is feasible and reasonable and procticable .Finally a sensitivity analysis was carried out on interval variables involved in the problem .The effects of the coefficient of variation of pipeline wall thickness ,defect depths ,oper-ating pressures and corrosion velocity on non-probability reliability index of the corroded pipelines were evaluated .The results of sensitivity analysis indicate that the non-probability reliability in-dex is the most sensitive to the coefficient of variation of pipeline wall thickness interval variable .关键词
腐蚀管道/区间变量/动态非概率可靠性/剩余寿命Key words
corroded pipeline/interval variables/time-dependent non-probability reliability/re-maining life分类
能源科技引用本文复制引用
魏宗平..在役腐蚀管道动态非概率可靠性分析[J].工程设计学报,2014,(1):27-31,5.基金项目
陕西省教育厅科研计划项目（09JK333）；宝鸡文理学院重点科研计划项目（ZK10142）． （）
