摘要
Abstract
The GLUE methodology is applied to uncertainty analyses of TOPMODEL , with the Xixia catchment in Danjiang River as the research area .The uncertainties of different likelihood functions , shaping factor , model parameters and prediction interval are analyzed .It is shown that the likelihood values for different functions are different as well as similar , and the different distribution of each different likelihood function the relationship between the parameters and the likelihood measure are affected by a shaping fac -tor .Lastly the prediction interval characteristics of the 90%confidence level at different threshold values are calculated , such as the observation containing ratio , prediction interval width and precition interval symmetry .It is shown that the lower the threshold value is, the higher the reliability of the prediction interval is , and meanwhile the larger while the range of uncertainty is .It is concluded that many factors should be considered in selecting likelihood function and threshold value .关键词
TOPMODEL模型/不确定性/GLUE方法/似然函数/预测区间Key words
TOPMODEL model/uncertainty/GLUE methodology/likelihood function/prediction interval分类
建筑与水利
