干旱地区农业研究Issue(5)：14-18,27,6.
新乡市近60年降水序列变化规律及干旱预测
Precipitation change in recent 60 years and drought prediction in Xinxiang
摘要
Abstract
Xinxiang City in He’nan Province is a region with a serious water shortage .Recently ,the problem of water shortage has become even more outstanding due to the aggravation of drought ,which has seriously restricted the so-cial and economic development .Thus it is important to analyze the trend of precipitation change and to conduct drought forecasting in this region .Based on the annual precipitation in Xinxiang during 1953 to 2010 ,the temporal variation of precipitation was analyzed by using linear regression equation and Mann-Kendall method .The results showed that the precipitation tended to decrease and the drought frequency tended to increase in Xinxiang in current 60 years .With the observed values of annual precipitation during 1953 to 2000 as modeling data and those during 2001 to 2010 as testing data ,and by using gray system technique ,the gray prediction model GM (1 ,1 ) of Xinxiang was established ,the time of drought occurrence in the future was forecasted .The testing results showed a good precision and were consistent well to the actuality .Therefore ,this model could be used to predict the years of drought .It was indicated that the drought would take place in the period of 2012-2013 ,2020-2021 and 2028-2029 .关键词
降水量/干旱预测/灰色系统/GM(1,1)模型Key words
precipitation/drought prediction/gray system/GM (1 ,1 ) model分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
夏露,宋孝玉,马细霞..新乡市近60年降水序列变化规律及干旱预测[J].干旱地区农业研究,2013,(5):14-18,27,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目（51239009，41171034）；中央财政支持地方高校发展专项资金特色重点学科项目 （）
