干旱地区农业研究Issue(6)：174-180,7.
基于干旱综合指数的模糊信息分配法的农业干旱风险评估研究
Study on the agricultural drought risk assessment based on the fuzzy information distribution method of drought composite index
摘要
Abstract
The factors effecting agricultural drought are complex ,and exist greater randomness and fuzziness be-tween the factors .The fuzzy linear information distribution method has been adopted in this study,to find out the proba-bility estimate distribution function by the comprehensive drought index data series combined with the dryness degree in-dex and effective precipitation index .Taken the Tiandong County in Guangxi Province as for the example,carried out the agricultural drought risk assessment,compared with the assessment results obtained by the conventional probability statis-tics analysis method as continuous rainless days index .The research results shown that in the seasons of spring and au-tumn,the agricultural drought occured almost every year in Tiandong County,the middle or severe drought may be oc-cured once in every 3 to 5 years .The drought risk probability was 69 .79%in winter,72 .78%in spring,5 .79%in summer and 80 .50% in autumn,respectively .The conclusion is that:For agricultural drought risk assessment,the fuzzy information distribution method based on drought composite index is more efficient and reliable,which can reflect the actual situation of drought better than the continuous rainless days index of conventional probability statistics analysis method .So it is an effective,simple and practical method .关键词
干旱风险评估/模糊线性信息分配/干旱综合指数/连续无雨日数/概率统计分析Key words
drought risk assessment/fuzzy linear information distribution/drought composite index/successive rainless days/probability statistics analysis分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
康永辉,解建仓,黄伟军,王宝红,杨云川..基于干旱综合指数的模糊信息分配法的农业干旱风险评估研究[J].干旱地区农业研究,2013,(6):174-180,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目（50979088）；广西高校优秀人才资助计划 （）
