干旱地区农业研究Issue(2)：114-118,141,6.
气候变化背景下玉米棉铃虫消长动态预测及影响因素研究
Study on the factors affecting corn’s Helicoverpa armigera dynamic prediction under the background of climate change
摘要
Abstract
The helicoverpa armigera investigation data from the Center of Plant Protection Station of Wuwei and me -teorological data during 1953 to 2010 years from Wuwei Bureau of Meteorology were used .We established population growth model of helicoverpa armigera and meteorological forecast model ,by which the characteristics and effects of cli-mate warming were analyzed .The results showed that the accumulated egg number per 100 plants’ growth followed a typ-ical “S” curve .The rapid growth period was in late July to early August (the corn silking stage) .The prediction model had a prediction accuracy rate of 78% ~ 89% .The impact of climate change on the occurrence and development of heli-coverpa armigera were revealed .And the increased temperature was favorable for helicoverpa armigera population growth and reproduction .关键词
河西走廊/玉米/棉铃虫/气候变化/影响因素Key words
Hexi Corridor/corn/bollworm(Helicoverpa armigera)/climate change/influencing factors分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
刘明春,蒋菊芳,郭小芹,孙占峰,丁文魁..气候变化背景下玉米棉铃虫消长动态预测及影响因素研究[J].干旱地区农业研究,2014,(2):114-118,141,6.基金项目
公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY200806021）；国家科技部公益行业科研专项“农田水分利用效率对气候变化的响应与适应技术” （）
