海洋科学Issue(10)：65-70,6.
西北太平洋柔鱼中长期预测方法研究
Study on medium to long term forecasting of squid in the Northwestern Pacific
摘要
Abstract
In order to better predict resource of squid in the Northwestern Pacific, it is very important to develop a prediction system based on an appropriate forecasting method. The correlation analysis was used to filter out key mesh points that significantly affect resource of squid in spawning areas. Data samples were organized by using sea-surface temperature (SST) at these mesh points, the ratio between the area with suitable temperature and the whole spawning areas, and catching amount per unit of effort (CPUE). Prediction experiments have been conducted by using linear regression, BP network, RBF network and support vector machine. Results showed that BP neural network is much better than other methods during medium and long term prediction of squid in the Northwestern Pacific. The resource forecasting system built based on correlation analysis and BP neural network is effective and feasible.关键词
远洋渔业/相关性分析/神经网络/中长期预报Key words
pelagic fisheries/correlation analysis/neural network/medium to long term forecasting分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
袁红春,顾怡婷,汪金涛,陈新军..西北太平洋柔鱼中长期预测方法研究[J].海洋科学,2013,(10):65-70,6.基金项目
上海市教育委员会科研创新重点项目(12ZZ162) （12ZZ162）
上海市科学技术委员会重点支撑项目(12510502000) （12510502000）
国家发改委专项(2060403) （2060403）
