广东石油化工学院学报Issue(6)：65-68,4.
广义极值模型在早期强余震预报中的应用
An Application of the Generalized Extreme Value Model to Predict Early Strong Aftershock
摘要
Abstract
Often a lot of aftershocks occurred after a major earthquake and strong aftershocks have the great harm .Taking Wenchuan after-shock magnitude data as the foundation ,we establish the generalized extreme value model of the aftershock data ,using maximum likelihood estimation to calculate the related parameters ,and the distribution fitting test .We predict maximum magnitude of aftershock in one month after the Wenchuan earthquake and probability of occurrence by using generalized extreme value model ,and found the results are consistent with the actual situation ,so that the extreme value theory is an effective way to the prediction of early strong aftershock .关键词
极值理论/广义极值模型/汶川地震/强余震Key words
extreme value theory/generalized extreme value model/Wenchuan Earthquake/Strong Aftershock分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
贾朝勇,潘玉荣..广义极值模型在早期强余震预报中的应用[J].广东石油化工学院学报,2013,(6):65-68,4.基金项目
安徽省高等学校优秀青年教师人才科研资助项目（2012SQRL215，2010SQRL115）；蚌埠学院教研项目 （）
