农机化研究Issue(1)：80-83,4.
基于离散灰色模型的中国农机总动力预测
AForecast for Agricultural Machinery Total Power of China Using Discrete Gray Model
摘要
Abstract
This paper employs Discrete Gray Model to forecast the trend of agricultural machinery total power of china . Firstly, we test the data about agricultural machinery total power of china during the period 2004-2011, which shows that the average relative error is 0 .307%, little error probability is 1 , correlation degree is 0 .9991 , and posterior vari-ance ratio is 0 .026 , and has a good fitness .Then , we predict the trend of agricultural machinery total power from 2012 to 2020 .The forecast result shows that agricultural machinery total power will climb to 1 ,247 ,952 ,000 kW in 2015 and to 1 ,684 ,204 ,000 kW in 2020 , and the growth rate per year is 6 .204%.关键词
农机总动力/灰色理论/离散灰色模型Key words
agricultural machinery total power/gray model/discrete gray model分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
邱洪臣,朱瑞祥,李卫,程金凤..基于离散灰色模型的中国农机总动力预测[J].农机化研究,2014,(1):80-83,4.基金项目
陕西省2011-2020年农业机械化发展战略研究 （）
