农机化研究Issue(7)：18-21,4.
基于灰色马尔柯夫链模型的浙江省名优茶产量预测
Yield Prediction of Famous Green Tea in Zhejiang Province Based on Grey-Markov Chain Theory
摘要
Abstract
In this paper , based on the combination of grey system theory and Markov chain theory , the grey Markov mod-el is established to forecast the yield of famous tea in Zhejiang Province .Firstly we build a dynamic GM ( 1 ,1 ) model ac-cording to the yield of famous tea in Zhejiang Province from 2000 to 2010 to obtain the evolution trend and predominant value of the famous-tea yield .Then the prediction result is modified by the use of Markov chain theory .The studied re-sults showed that the relative errors of predicted yield of grey Markov are much smaller .It shows that the forcasted results of the grey Markov model are more precise than the GM ( 1 ,1 ) model for data sequences with heavy random fluctuation . Using this grey Markov model to forcast the yield of famous tea in Zhejiang Province is feasible .关键词
名优茶产量/马尔柯夫链/GM(1,1)模型/灰色马尔柯夫模型Key words
yield of famous tea/Markov chain/GM(1,1) model/grey markov model分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
方孝荣,丁希斌,李晓丽..基于灰色马尔柯夫链模型的浙江省名优茶产量预测[J].农机化研究,2014,(7):18-21,4.基金项目
“十二五”国家科技支撑计划项目 （）
