南水北调与水利科技Issue(2)：63-66,4.DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2014.02.015
立冬日在南水北调冬季输水气温稳定转负日预报中的应用
Application of Beginning of Winter in the Prediction of Date When Transmission Water Temperature Becomes Negative in South-to-North Water Diversion Project
摘要
Abstract
The relationship between Chinese traditional twenty-four solar terms and hydrology is analyzed and the scientific basis of using solar terms in the hydrological prediction is developed .The Beginning of Winter is selected as the datum point of the statistic date in the prediction .The BP-ANNs model improved by Levenberg-Marquartalgorithm is introduced to predict the dates when temperature becomes negative in the cities of the north of Yellow River .The correlation coefficients of the date when temperature becomes negative in Xinxiang ,Anyang ,Xingtai ,Shijiazhuang city ,Baoding ,and Beijing from 1957 to 2005 were compared .All of the correlation coefficients in the coordinate system of Chinese lunar calendar are greater than those in the co-ordinate system of solar calendar ,which suggests that the correlation of the date when temperature becomes negative is stronger in the coordinate system of Chinese lunar calendar .In addition ,the coordinate system of Chinese lunar calendar and solar calen-dar were used to predict 16 sets of dates when temperature becomes negative .The results showed that the coordinate system of Chinese lunar calendar predicts 13 sets of acceptable data while the coordinate system of solar calendar predicts 11 sets of ac-ceptable data .Therefore ,the application of the traditional twenty-four solar terms in the prediction of date when temperature be-comes negative is feasible .关键词
南水北调/冰情/预报/二十四节气/立冬/气温转负日期/相关系数Key words
South-to-North Water Diversion Project/ice condition/forecast/twenty-four solar terms/beginning of winter/date when temperature becomes negative/correlation coefficient分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
王涛,马俊青,罗盛,赵林明,王金鹏..立冬日在南水北调冬季输水气温稳定转负日预报中的应用[J].南水北调与水利科技,2014,(2):63-66,4.基金项目
国家自然基金（51179209；51209233）；水利部公益性行业科研专项 （）
