南水北调与水利科技Issue(2)：116-119,124,5.DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2014.02.027
气象集合预报在水文领域中的应用研究进展
Research Progress on Hydrological Application of Meteorological Ensemble Forecast
摘要
Abstract
Ensemble forecast is a probabilistic forecast technique developed from the uncertainty of numerical prediction .Using ensemble forecast can improve the forecast time and accuracy of hydrological forecast in reservoir operation .It has been widely used in developed countries .In this paper ,the development progress of ensemble forecast was introduced ,and the research pro-gress on ensemble forecast in hydrological application was analyzed from three aspects ,including the flood warning ,runoff pre-diction ,and reservoir regulation .In addition ,the verification of ensemble forecast and key issues in the hydrological application w ere discussed .关键词
集合预报/水文/洪水预警/径流预报Key words
ensemble forecast/hydrology/flood warning/runoff prediction分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
卢迪,彭勇,徐炜,周惠成..气象集合预报在水文领域中的应用研究进展[J].南水北调与水利科技,2014,(2):116-119,124,5.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目（51109025）；中央高校基本科研业务费专项（DUT13JS06）；水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室开放基金资助项目（2012490411）；水力学与山区河流开发保护国家重点实验室开放基金资助项目 （）
