农业工程学报Issue(5)：238-246,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2014.05.030
长株潭地区生态系统服务价值分析及趋势预测
Ecosystem service value analysis and trend prediction in Chang-Zhu-Tan region
摘要
Abstract
Ecosystem service value is life support products and services directly or indirectly obtained by ecosystem structures, processes, and functions. Land use/land cover change plays a decisive role in the maintenance of the ecosystem services function by altering the structure and function of ecosystems. By the assessment of LUCC on the ecosystem service value, the combined effects of regional land-use changes on ecosystems can be quantitatively and comparatively studied, providing significant insights into practical applications. In the present study, the effects of land use change are detailed and discussed to obtain the values of ecosystem services in the Chang-Zhu-Tan region from 1996 to 2008. Land use change trend is predicted by using the method proposed by Costanza (ESV) wherein the values of ecosystem services are calculated with regard to the value coefficients of ecosystem services per unit area in the Chinese terrestrial ecosystem, as well as being combined with sensitivity analysis and Gray Model (1,1). The process of the research is as follows: 1) The regional ecosystem service value equivalence factor and the amendment of benchmark unit price are studied based on Costanza’s calculation method of ecosystem service value, as well as referring to the farmland ecosystem biomass factor table of our country’s different provinces established by Xie Gaodi, etc.;2) The studied regional ecosystem service values are assessed on the basis of the amended Chang-Zhu-Tan region ecosystem’s unit area ecological service value table and the corresponding area of every land-using type of the studied region;3) The spatial variability of ecosystem service value is analyzed for every county in the Chang-Zhu-Tan region;and 4) The area changes of each land use type in the studied region during 2011-2020 is predicted by use of the GM (1,1) model, and the total value of regional ecosystem services in that period is also evaluated. The conclusion from these studies is that, in the studied time period, the total value of ecosystem services decreased from 405.03×108 Yuan in 1996 to 399.83×108 Yuan in 2008. Likewise, the value of ecosystem services, as predicted in various land use changes from 2011 to 2020, will reduce to 392.61×108 Yuan in 2020. The reason for the reduction of the regional value is that agricultural land with high value coefficient of ecosystem services shifts to the non-value construction land. Enormous pressure is, therefore, exerted on ecological safety, resulting from rapid urbanization in the studied area in pursuit of high GDP development and growth. Local government and relevant departments should pay extensive attention to the continuing degradation of the regional ecological environment, and should take effective measures such as;working on the comprehensive plan for land ecology and land use, establishing and improving the regional eco-compensation mechanism, choosing a reasonable price for regional eco-compensation, economizing the intensively-utilized cultivated land, realizing dynamic equilibrium of the total cultivated land, strengthening the protection of cultivated land in quantity and quality, and improving the environment around them. As such, it is possible for the Chinese Chang-Zhu-Tan region to become a comprehensive reform pilot area, as well as a national resource-saving and environment-friendly society.关键词
土地利用/生态系统/模型/生态系统服务价值/敏感性分析/GM(1,1)模型Key words
land use/ecosystems/models/ecosystem service value/sensitivity analysis/GM(1,1)’s model分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
郭荣中,杨敏华..长株潭地区生态系统服务价值分析及趋势预测[J].农业工程学报,2014,(5):238-246,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目（21004018）；湖南省科技厅科技计划项目（2011SK3203）；长沙环境保护职业技术学院科研课题 （）
