摘要
Abstract
Under the influence of many factors, now most intelligence analysts are still not aware of the existence of logical reasoning er-rors and their severe consequences, which would severely damage the quality of intelligence analysis. This paper clarifies the roles of logi-cal reasoning in intelligence analysis, and explores the main logical reasoning errors existing in intelligence analysis and the main reasons. On this basis, it puts forward some suggestions to avoid logical reasoning errors from the aspects of education, institution, resource integra-tion, and implications from intelligence failures, so as to improve the quality of the logic reasoning in intelligence analysis.关键词
情报分析/逻辑推理误区/唯技术论/轻重失衡论/盟友怀疑论/消极验证论Key words
intelligence analysis/logical reasoning error/technocratism/severity imbalance theory/ally skepticism theory/negative verification theory分类
军事科技
