情报杂志Issue(3)：22-27,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-1965.2014.03.005
基于专利分析的技术预测概念模型
Conceptual Model of Technology Forecast Based on Patent Analysis
摘要
Abstract
There are different definitions for technology forecast domestically and abroad. Being an effective tool for technology forecast, patent analysis is very helpful to technological innovation decision-making. Because the forecast in specific technology fields is based on features of technology development direction, level and potential implicated in the “three natures of patent”, so a conceptual model of technology forecast can be built on the basis of patent analysis. The proposed model consists four layers of overall forecast, forecast con-solidated, predictive analysis and forecast information from a longitudinal level. Based on this, corresponding indicators and methods of patent analysis can be chosen and used to build a patent analysis frame for technology forecast to guide the actual activities of technology forecast. The effectiveness of technology forecast can be described with the three variables of development direction, level and potential of technology. And it is suggested that other methods be used together with patent analysis because of its limitations.关键词
技术预测/专利文献/专利指标/专利分析/技术创新/概念模型Key words
technology forecast/patent literature/patent indicators/patent analysis/technological innovation/conceptual model分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
张韵君,柳飞红..基于专利分析的技术预测概念模型[J].情报杂志,2014,(3):22-27,6.基金项目
广东省自然科学基金项目“产学研技术创新联盟:模式与运行机制研究”(编号:S2011040004369) （编号:S2011040004369）
广东省软科学研究计划项目“基于知识管理视角的区域自主创新体系运行机制研究”(编号:2011B070400002) （编号:2011B070400002）
广州市社会科学规划课题“广州市专利资助政策与绩效研究”(编号:2012GJ33)。 （编号:2012GJ33）
