气象Issue(12)：1642-1648,7.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2013.12.013
统计方法与淹没模型结合的山洪灾害风险评估方法及其应用
Flash Floods Disaster Risk Assessment Method Combination of Statistical and Inundated Model and Its Application
摘要
Abstract
This paper focuses on critical hazard rainfall of valleys that only has water level records but no water flow records.After statistically analysing the water stage data and the rainfall data during floods of recent years,this paper gets the relationship between rainfall and floods.With this relationship and water level records of historical floods,the critical hazard rainfall of valleys is obtained.Furthermore,this paper estimates the risk levels of each critical rainfall by simulating submergence with submergence model.By contrasting the simulated result to history records of some serious floods,the rainfall threshold got from statistic is proved to be reasonable.Due to the clear submerging depth and blurry occurrence time of flood records,the rainfall threshold obtained still needs to be verified.Although the occurring time of the esti-mated hazards disaccords with reality,the low-level risk rainfall threshold got verified in rainy season of 2012.It can be used to predict a low-risk rainfall flood by lowering the risk critical rainfall reasonably.For other levels of risk rainfall,verification is very necessary once new flood examples are collected.关键词
山洪/临界雨量/雨-洪关系/淹没模型Key words
flash floods/rainfall threshold value/rainfall-flood relationship/flood model分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
张容焱,游立军,高建芸,林昕,唐振飞..统计方法与淹没模型结合的山洪灾害风险评估方法及其应用[J].气象,2013,(12):1642-1648,7.基金项目
中国气象局应急减灾与公共服务司《气象灾害风险评估业务试点》项目和福建省气象科学研究课题《福建省暴雨山洪灾害风险评估》共同资助 （）
