气象Issue(2)：174-185,12.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2014.02.005
滇南冰雹的预报预警方法研究
Study of the Method for Hail Forecasting and Warning in Southern Yunnan
摘要
Abstract
Based on the air-sounding data,the CIND3830-CC CINRAD data and surface observation data, the hail event processes seen in Puer and Xishuangbanna during 2004-2011 are analyzed.The results show that:(1 )hail can be forecasted 60 min in advance when initial and developing features of hail-cloud appear in the radar echo images.(2)Hail can be forecasted 12 to 102 min earlier before the event occurs, if echo composite reflectivity ≥55 dBz,width ≥ 12.0 km,gradient ≥ 15 dBz·km-1 ,H45 dBz≥ 7.5 km,H45 dBz-H0≥ 3 .1 km andH45 dBz-H-20≥ -0 .5 km during February-May,H45 dBz-H0≥ 2 .0 km andH45 dBz-H-20≥ -1.2 km,VIL≥30 kg·m-2 ,DVIL≥3.0 g·m-3 during June-August.(3)If the echo shows the features of weak shear,echo top in 45 dBz≥7 .5 km,H45 dBz-H0≥3 .1 km andH45 dBz-H-20≥-0 .5 km during February-May,H45 dBz-H0≥2 .0 km and H45 dBz-H-20≥-1 .2 km during June-August,hail can be forecasted with 18-54 min in advance.(4)In addition to squall line and downburst, hail can be forecasted 12-54 min earlier if VIL≥30 kg·m-2 ,DVIL≥3.0 g·m-3 .Besides,this paper summarizes the characteristics of hail-cloud lifetime,and tests forecast indice by using the hail process in 2012.关键词
天气预报/冰雹/统计特征/垂直剖面/飑线Key words
forecast/hail/statistic feature/vertical profile/squall line分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
段鹤,严华生,马学文,罗庆仙,刘建平..滇南冰雹的预报预警方法研究[J].气象,2014,(2):174-185,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目（41075072）和中国气象局预报员专项（CMAYBY2013-063）共同资助 （）
