热带地理Issue(5)：640-645,6.
被高估的“海平面上升对珠江口风暴潮灾害评估影响”的原因探析
A Discussion on Reasons for Impact of Over-Estimated Sea Level Rise on Storm Surge Disaster Forecasting of the Pearl River Estuary
摘要
Abstract
This paper collected the historical tidal data and the actual loss data of storm surge disasters of the Pearl River Estuary, and made an analysis on the sea level rise values from IPCC-AR4 and some evaluation reports according to marine and hydrology standards. The analysis identifies that some papers have overestimated the effect of sea level rise on storm surge disaster forecasting of the Pearl River Estuary. The reasons are as follows:1) There’re some errors in report [10]:a. AAL/GDP was defined as a linear relationship, GDP and AAL/GDP were used to compute AAL. That is logically wrong, because storm surge disaster loss does not increase year by year, and it is not directly related to GDP growth. b. The 2005 values of per capita annual income in Guangzhou and Shenzhen were both estimated to be$6193, which is a serious high valuation, about 50%higher than the actual value. c. The evaluated values of storm surge water level are obviously too high. 2) The following are the errors in [20] and [21]. The evaluation method to directly overlay the sea level rise value and return period tidal level is not scientific. 3)The estimations of global sea level rise in 2100 have no basis. 4) The historical highest value of the recorded tidal level in [22] may be too high.关键词
海平面上升/风暴潮灾害/珠江口Key words
sea level rise/the storm surge disaster/the Pearl River Estuary分类
海洋科学引用本文复制引用
冯伟忠,张娟,游大伟,许炜铭..被高估的“海平面上升对珠江口风暴潮灾害评估影响”的原因探析[J].热带地理,2013,(5):640-645,6.基金项目
国家高技术研究发展计划（863计划）项目（2013AA09A506-3）；南海数值预报业务化系统研究及其应用 （）
