人口与经济Issue(1)：37-46,10.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4149.2014.01.003
人口结构变迁的经济增长效应分析
The Effects of Demographic Changes on Economic Growth
摘要
Abstract
Firstly, this paper introduces demographic variables in Solow Model to analyze its im-pacts on economic growth theoretically .Secondly , this paper collects China ’ s provincial data from 1990~2008 and uses fixed effect model , test effect of demographic change on the economic .We use pooled OLS and instrumental variables method estimate the parameter respectively .The empiri-cal conclusion indicates that increasing of the share of working-age population and decreasing of so- cial dependency ratio are the important factors of China ’ s rapid economic growth in past 20 years. From 1990 to 2008 , the economic growth in China resulting from reduction of population dependency is about 1.44%, and the economic growth contribution of demographic change was 15%.As the population aging in China is gradually deepened , demographic change will bring negative impact on China’ s future economic growth .All of this means that China should adopt an active strategy to address future population aging .关键词
人口结构变迁/人口老龄化/人口抚养比/经济增长Key words
demographic change/population aging/population dependency ratio/economic growth分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
孙爱军,刘生龙..人口结构变迁的经济增长效应分析[J].人口与经济,2014,(1):37-46,10.基金项目
中国社会科学院哲学社会科学创新工程项目“经济预测与经济政策评价”（ sky2012031）；国家社会科学基金“中国对外贸易中的碳排放测度与评估”（13BJY069）；江苏省“青蓝工程”。 （）
