人民长江Issue(5)：31-33,3.
用引入时间参量的DGM（1,1）模型预测大坝沉降
Application of DGM(1,1) with time parameter in dam settlement forecasting
摘要
Abstract
Considering the forecasting stability problem of traditional GM(1,1) model as well as the non-equal time-span features of observing data in the real hydropower projects, we propose a discrete grey forecasting model(DGM(1,1)) that takes account of time parameter. Based on the original discrete model, the cumulative amount of time is introduced to correct the model parameter to reflect the non-equal time-span feature and aging of the data. The core-wall settlement data of Nuozhadu Dam is analyzed by the model and the fitting and forecasting results are compared with another model, which proves that the presented discrete model has better forecasting accuracy.关键词
大坝沉降/非等时距/离散灰色模型/沉降预测Key words
dam settlement/non-equal time-span/discrete DGM(1,1)/settlement forecasting分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
孙斌斌,余维维,钟黎雨..用引入时间参量的DGM（1,1）模型预测大坝沉降[J].人民长江,2014,(5):31-33,3.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(51279052) （51279052）
水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201201038) （201201038）
河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室专项基金(2010585212) （2010585212）
