人民黄河Issue(1)：48-51,4.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2014.01.017
妫水河流域未来气候变化下的水文响应研究
Research on the Hydrological Responses to Future Climate Change in Guishui River Basin
摘要
Abstract
The hydrological responses to future climate change on the streamflow in Guishui River Basin had been evaluated quantitatively by using HadCM3 coupled with the HSPF hydrological model. The projected daily maximum,minimum air temperature and precipitation of HadCM3 under A2 and B2 scenarios first downscaled on to local meteorological stations using the SDSM. The HSPF hydrological model applied on the Guishui River basin was calibrated and validated with the observed data from 2005 to 2006 and from 2007 to 2008 respectively. The future scenarios data of each meteorological station were then used as input to the HSPF hydrological model to simulate the corresponding future hydrological responses in the ba-sin. The results predict that daily maximum and minimum air temperature show a reasonable upward trend,while daily precipitation and streamflow generally show a downward trend in the next 90 years. The changing rate of daily maximum temperature,minimum temperature,annual precipitati-on and streamflow are 0. 462 ℃,0. 453 ℃,-0. 010 mm,-0. 051 m3/s,and 0. 263℃,0. 264 ℃,-0. 014 mm and -0. 044 m3/s)per dec-ade respectively under A2(B2)scenarios. The results show that the drought will be intensified in the basin in the future.关键词
HadCM3/SDSM/HSPF水文模型/气温/降水量/气候变化情景/妫水河流域Key words
HadCM3/SDSM/HSPF hydrological model/temperature/precipitation/climate change scenario/Guishui River basin分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
郭彬斌,张静,宫辉力,程晓光..妫水河流域未来气候变化下的水文响应研究[J].人民黄河,2014,(1):48-51,4.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目（41271004，40901026）；北京市科技新星项目（2010B046）。 （）
