人民黄河Issue(2)：68-70,3.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2014.02.022
基于LCM模型的黄河三角洲土地利用变化预测
Land Use Change Prediction Based on LCM Model in the Yellow River Delta
摘要
Abstract
In order to explore the evolution law of land use change and driving mechanism in the Yellow River Delta,taking Dongying City for an example and adopting the remote sensing image interpretations in 1989,1999 and 2009 as well as land use change factors analysis,this paper es-tablished a model (land change modeler,LCM)for land use change prediction. Based on the land use change during the period of 1989~1999, the proposed model was applied to simulate the land change use in 2009 and the Kappa coefficient was 0. 877,which indicated the model having high prediction ability and reliability. Based on this,the land use change in 2019 was predicted and the results show that the areas of cultivated land,grassland and unused land will continuously decline,while the areas of construction land and waters will increase slightly.关键词
土地利用变化/LCM模型/马尔科夫预测/黄河三角洲Key words
land use change/LCM model/Markov prediction/Yellow River Delta分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
仕玉治,黄继文,刘海娇,傅世东..基于LCM模型的黄河三角洲土地利用变化预测[J].人民黄河,2014,(2):68-70,3.基金项目
水利部公益性行业科研专项（200801026）；中国科学院对外合作重点项目（GJHZ1016）。 （）
