水利学报Issue(11)：1278-1285,8.
感潮河段水位与上游洪水和河口潮位的关联性研究
Study on the correlation of the water level of the tidal river with upstream flood and estuary tide level
摘要
Abstract
The difference of water level process in the tidal river will directly affect the drainage process of the waterlog-prone area on both sides of the tidal river. The correlation of the water level of the tidal river with upstream flood and estuary tide level was carried out in order to provide basis for proper selec-tion of the design tidal level process of the tidal river for defensing waterlogging of the waterlog-prone ar-ea. The model about the correlation of the water level of the tidal river with upstream flood and estuary tide level is established. At first, the different copula function is used to build the bivariate joint distribu-tion of the annual maximum water level of tidal reach and its corresponding upstream flood discharge, as well as the annual maximum water level of tidal reach and its corresponding estuary tidal level. Then based on them, the correlation analysis models are put forward. The case study on the correlation of the water level in Zhuyin observing station of Modaomen water channel with upstream flood in Makou observing station and estuary tide in Sanzao observing station, one of the Pearl River’s main sea-entering channels, is conducted and the results are as follows:(1) For any annual maximum water level of Zhuyin observing station, the probability meeting with flood in Makou observing station is much lower than meeting with tide level of the same recurrence interval in Sanzao observing station,i.e.,for the water level of Zhuyin observ-ing station, the influence of tide level Sanzao observing station is much greater. (2) For any annual maxi-mum water level of Zhuyin observing station, the risk probability combining with flood in Makou observing station is not always less than that combining with tide level of the same recurrence interval in Sanzao ob-serving station. When recurrence interval is large,the former is higher than the latter.关键词
关联性/感潮河段水位/上游洪水/河口潮位/概率/Copula函数/联合分布Key words
correlation/the water level of tidal river/upstream flood/the estuary tide level/probability/copula function/joint distribution分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
刘曾美,覃光华,陈子燊,金菊良..感潮河段水位与上游洪水和河口潮位的关联性研究[J].水利学报,2013,(11):1278-1285,8.基金项目
广东水利科技创新与项目（2011-18）；水力学与山区河流开发保护国家重点实验室开放研究基金（1113）；国家自然科学基金项目（51079037）；国家重点基础研究发展计划973项目 （）
