水利学报Issue(12)：1409-1419,11.
珠江流域未来30年洪水对气候变化的响应
Flood response to climate change in the Pearl River basin for the next three decades
摘要
Abstract
Based on five relative independent global climate models from the multi-model ensemble of 47 global climate models within World Climate Research Program’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) model, flood response to climate change in the Pearl River basin under the new Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) representative con-centration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 scenario for the next three decades was assessed in this study. The results show that upward trends are likely detected on the results of Mann-Kendall test at most gauges in the Xiji-ang River and the coastal various rivers during 2011-2040, and downward trends are more likely than not found in the North River (for the annual maximum 15d mean stream flow series) and the East River dur-ing that period. But most of these trends are not significant. Relative to the baseline period (1970-1999), the projected extraordinary flood would be likely increased in the Yujiang River, the Guijiang River, the West River and the coastal various rivers, and in the Hongshuihe River and the North River, there are more likely than not to increase. Only in the Liujiang River, the projected extraordinary flood would be likely or more likely than not to decrease. The source of flood at Gaoyao gauge would be likely more relat-ed to the Hongshuihe River and the Yujiang River. Flood encountering risk would be more likely than not to increase for the North River and the West River, and that is also found for the Hongshuihe River and the Liujiang River.关键词
气候变化/RCP4.5/CMIP5/珠江流域/VIC模型/洪峰流量/洪水总量/趋势Key words
climate change/RCP4.5/CMIP5/the Pearl River basin/VIC model/flood peak/flood vol-ume/trends分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
肖恒,陆桂华,吴志勇,刘志雨..珠江流域未来30年洪水对气候变化的响应[J].水利学报,2013,(12):1409-1419,11.基金项目
国家重点基础研究发展计划（973）项目（2010CB428405）；水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目（201301040，201301070）；青蓝工程和新世纪优秀人才支持计划资助 （）
