中国石油大学学报（社会科学版）Issue(2)：1-7,7.
中国石油供应安全状态分析与风险预警
摘要
Abstract
Pre-warning plays an important role in China’s petroleum security. This paper applies pressure-state-response ( PSR ) framework to China’s petroleum security pre-warning indicator system, then establishes China’s petroleum security pre-warning model based on data mining theory of principal component analysis ( PCA) and K-means clustering method. Empirical study has found that China’s petroleum supply security is in large fluctuations in nearly 20 years. Intensity of petroleum consumption, international crude oil prices and dependence on foreign petroleum are the major impact factors of China’s petroleum supply. The study shows that the model can reflect China’s petroleum supply security risk level of evolution and the main factors, and can be used for medium and long-term pre-warning of petroleum supply security risk.关键词
石油安全/风险/压力-状态-响应框架/主成分分析/K-means聚类算法/预警Key words
petroleum security/risk/pressure-state-response/principal component analysis/K-means clustering method/pre-warning分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
张彤,张文琴,王渊,罗超华..中国石油供应安全状态分析与风险预警[J].中国石油大学学报（社会科学版）,2014,(2):1-7,7.基金项目
西安工程大学供应链控制与决策研究项目 （）
