物理学报Issue(4)：040505-1-040505-8,8.DOI:10.7498/aps.63.040505
短时交通流复杂动力学特性分析及预测
Analysis and prediction of complex dynamical characteristics of short-term traffc flow
摘要
Abstract
In order to reveal the internal dynamic property of short-term traffc flow, the nonlinear analysis method is used to identify the chaotic property of traffc flow which is the basis for the prediction of the traffc flow time series. Traffc flow time series is reconstructed in phase-space based on chaos theory. The embedding dimension and delay time are first calculated via the C-C method. The correlative dimension of attractor is then calculated with the Grassberger-Procaccia method. The largest Lyapunov exponent of traffc flow set is calculated on the basis of the improved small data set method to verify the presence of the chaos in traffc flow time series. A novel multi-step adaptive prediction method is proposed to solve the problem of adjusting the filter parameters of the chaos local adaptive prediction method during traffc flow multi-step prediction. The traffc flow time series are found to have chaotic properties in different statistical scales of 2, 4, and 5 min and show that the improved small data set method can accurately evaluate the chaotic property for traffc flow time series, and that the multi-step adaptive prediction method is capable of effectively predicting its fluctuation, which provides a useful reference for traffc guidance and control.关键词
交通流量/混沌/最大Lyapunov指数/多步自适应预测Key words
traffc flow/chaos/maximum Lyapunov exponent/multi-step adaptive prediction引用本文复制引用
张洪宾,孙小端,贺玉龙..短时交通流复杂动力学特性分析及预测[J].物理学报,2014,(4):040505-1-040505-8,8.基金项目
国家重点基础研究发展计划(批准号:2012CB723303)和国家自然科学基金青年科学基金(批准号:51308058)资助的课题.* Project supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No.2012CB723303) and the Young Scientists Fund of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.51308058) （批准号:2012CB723303）
