运筹与管理Issue(6)：225-231,7.
国际原油价格波动与原油进口对 GDP 的影响研究
Research on the International Oil Price Fluctuation and Oil Import’ s Influence on GDP
摘要
Abstract
Based on the historical data of international crude oil price , by statistical methods ,it is proved that the fluctuation of international oil price takes on Markov property .China ’ s oil import price is regarded as Markov chain and probability of state transition is calculated .After summarizing China ’ s import strategies , the loss of GDP caused by every strategy under each state is estimated and linear programming model for optimal strategy is founded .The result shows that , even under the condition that the optimal strategy is carried out , the fluctuation of the international oil price can still make a loss to GDP of 47 .078 billion yuan .关键词
原油价格波动/马儿科夫链/线性规划/最优进口策略/GDP损失Key words
crude oil price fluctuation/markov chain/linear programming model/optimal import strategy/GDP losing分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
张传平,牛晓良..国际原油价格波动与原油进口对 GDP 的影响研究[J].运筹与管理,2013,(6):225-231,7.基金项目
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目 （）
