中国电机工程学报Issue(7)：1124-1131,8.DOI:10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.2014.07.014
用于网架重构方案运行风险评估的线路投运模型
Model of Restoring Transmission Lines for Operational Risk Assessment of Network-reconfiguration Scheme
摘要
Abstract
Network reconfiguration following the massive outage involves a large number of transmission lines that need to be switched on. Due to the drawback existing in modeling and evaluation of risk regarding restoring transmission lines, a model with the fuzzy repair rate and statistic failure rate for transmission lines’ restoration was proposed in this paper. Based on two-state Markov process, the model took into account main uncertain factors influencing the state of transmission lines, which included possible failure in switching on lines and following lines’ restoration. Further, the expected value of fuzzy state possibility for restoring transmission lines was solved by means of fuzzy simulation based on credibility theory. Finally, the model proposed was employed in facilitating the existing framework of operational risk assessment for restoring transmission lines according to a certain reconfiguration scheme. The application on schemes of reconstructing the IEEE 30-bus system indicates that the model could help dispatchers track the risk variation corresponding to each operation step during restoring transmission lines, which provides more comprehensive auxiliary information for dispatchers choosing restoration schemes.关键词
大停电/网架重构/线路投运/运行风险评估/马尔可夫过程/可信性理论/模糊模拟Key words
massive outage/network reconfiguration/transmission line restoration/operational risk assessment/Markov process/credibility theory/fuzzy simulation分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
刘艳,王涛,王文炎..用于网架重构方案运行风险评估的线路投运模型[J].中国电机工程学报,2014,(7):1124-1131,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(51077052)。@@@@Project Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (51077052) （51077052）
