北京科技大学学报Issue(12)：1683-1693,11.DOI:10.13374/j.issn1001-053x.2014.12.016
中国钢铁工业流程结构、能耗和排放长期情景预测
Long-term scenario forecast of production routes, energy consumption and emissions for Chinese steel industry
摘要
Abstract
A whole life cycle model covering steel production, manufacturing, consumption and end-of-life, together with an out-put prediction model on the basis of per capita steel stock, is constructed to accurately forecast the trends of production routes, energy consumption and emissions for Chinese steel industry. Predictions with five scenarios including business as usual scenario, scrap recy-cle rate improvement scenario, steel lifetime improvement scenario, energy intensity improvement scenario and ALL scenario were con-ducted in combination with the analysis of energy use and CO2 emissions of each production unit. The results show that Chinese steel production, energy consumption and CO2 emissions will decline after a peak and the EAF production route will become the mainstream after replacing the BF-BOF route gradually. Meanwhile, production route change is the key “dividend” to cut the future energy con-sumption and emissions. The role of technical improvement will gradually emerge in the latter. To meet the goal of reducing emissions by half in 2050, many strategies, referring to ALL scenario, should be applied to promote the production route adjustment, steel recy-clability and technologies of energy conservation and emission reduction.关键词
废钢/钢铁生产/生产流程分析/能耗/二氧化碳排放/情景分析Key words
steel scrap/iron and steel production/production flow analysis/energy consumption/carbon dioxide emissions/sce-nario analysis分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
汪鹏,姜泽毅,张欣欣,耿心怡,郝诗宇..中国钢铁工业流程结构、能耗和排放长期情景预测[J].北京科技大学学报,2014,(12):1683-1693,11.基金项目
国家重点基础研究发展规划资助项目(2012CB720405) （2012CB720405）
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(FRF-SD-12-006B) （FRF-SD-12-006B）
