长江科学院院报Issue(3)：84-88,94,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-5485.2015.03.017
区域山洪灾害预警难度评价--以长江流域为例
Assessment of the Difficulty of Warning Mountain Torrent Disasters:Case Study of the Yangtze River Basin
摘要
Abstract
Assessing the difficulty of early-warning mountain torrent flood disaster is a basic research in the study of mountain flood disaster prevention in China.In this study,we built the assessment index system by using geostatis-tics method based on historical disasters,geographical background,and socio-economic data.The assessment index system includes the types of the torrent flood processes,underlying surface complexity and maintainability and per-formability of equipment.Analytic Hierarchy Process was employed to give weights to various indicators and the as-sessment model was obtained.The model was applied to assess the difficulty of early-warning torrent flood disaster in the Yangtze river basin.Results showed that areas difficult to warning are mainly concentrated in the south of Gansu Province,middle Sichuan province,the north of Yunnan,northeast of Guizhou,Northwest of Hubei,and large parts of Chongqing.These areas are frequently subjected to landslides and debris flows with high mountains and steep slopes unaccessible and high costs of installing and maintaining equipment as well as fiscal difficulty. Qinghai,Sichuan basin,and the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze river are less difficult to warn.The assess-ment results are consistent with field investigation of typical regions.The research results may provide new perspec-tive and basis for policy-making on the control of torrent flood disasters in China.关键词
长江流域/山洪灾害/预警难度/层次分析/防洪减灾Key words
Yangtze river basin/mountain torrent disaster/warning difficulty/analytical hierarchy process/flood prevention and disaster mitigation分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
蔡道明,肖翔,孙金伟..区域山洪灾害预警难度评价--以长江流域为例[J].长江科学院院报,2015,(3):84-88,94,6.基金项目
国家“十二五”科技支撑计划项目（2012BAK10B04）；水利部公益性行业科研专项经费资助项目（201301058，201301059）；中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费资助项目 （）
