财经理论与实践Issue(2)：118-122,5.
出口贸易风险测度及其影响因素分析基于跨国数据的经验研究
Export Trade Risk Measure and Its Influencing Factors:Based on the Empirical Research of the Multinational data
摘要
Abstract
This paper employs the export quotas for different sectors and the output variance covariance matrix to define a risk index of a country's export structure.Then it uses the export structure of risk during the sample period to sample countries to measure the risk of the export. Then the export risk index is decomposed into:Herfindahl term,the average risk term,the co-variance effect term and Herfindahl's interaction with the average risk term.To further clarify the each part of the risk of export.Finally,this article selects the main macroeconomic variables that affect the risk of a country's exports,using international panel data analysis on factors affect-ing the risk of the export results show that in the macroeconomic factors,export trade condition and the impact of financial openness of a country's export risk is the most significant,while a country's per capita income level is not an obvious influence on the country's export risk.关键词
出口结构风险/分解效应/影响因素分析Key words
Export structure risk/Decomposition effect/Influence factors analysis分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
周梁,张亚斌,汪蕾..出口贸易风险测度及其影响因素分析基于跨国数据的经验研究[J].财经理论与实践,2015,(2):118-122,5.基金项目
国家自科基金一般项目(71173069) （71173069）
