重庆大学学报Issue(5)：71-76,6.DOI:10.11835/j.issn.1000-582X.2014.05.010
基于马尔克夫的灰色残差 GM（1，1）模型在塑料老化行为预测中的应用
The application of grey residual error GM (1,1)model based on Markvo to aging behavior prediction of plastic
摘要
Abstract
To solve the problem of poor prediction accuracy of GM (1 ,1)model when the data are discrete , based on the sign of residual error modification value of prediction value being determined by Markvo chain , a residual error modification is presented .The grey residual error GM (1 ,1)model based on Markvo is constructed through the modification of simulation value and prediction value obtained from GM (1 ,1 ) model .The prediction of tensile strength of LDPE greenhouse film under natural aging condition is taken as an example ,and the applicability of constructed model in the prediction of plastic aging behavior is researched .The results show that the relative error between prediction value and the actual value of tensile strength of LDPE greenhouse film after aging 18 and 21 months obtained from constructed model are 1 .49% and 4 .96% respectively .Prediction accuracy are higher than that (relative error are 3 .40% and 6 .75% respectively)obtained from GM(1 ,1)model obviously .Grey residual error GM (1 ,1)model based on Markvo needs less original data and has high prediction accuracy ,thus it is a simple and reliable method for plastic aging behavior prediction .关键词
塑料/老化/预测/灰色模型/马尔可夫过程Key words
plastic/aging/prediction/grey model/Markov chain分类
化学化工引用本文复制引用
陈奎,张天云,卢柏林,郑小平..基于马尔克夫的灰色残差 GM（1，1）模型在塑料老化行为预测中的应用[J].重庆大学学报,2014,(5):71-76,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目（11164012）；教育部科学技术研究重点项目（210230）；甘肃省自然科学基金（1010RJZA168）；甘肃省教育厅基金 （）
