西部论坛Issue(6)：69-80,12.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1674-8131.2014.06.09
市场化转型成效取决于“初始条件”还是“路径选择”？∗--基于“后发优势”理论的中苏比较研究
Does “Initial Condition” or “Path Selection” Determine the Effect of Market-oriented Transition?-A Research on Comparison between China and Former Soviet Union Based on“Latecomer Advantages” Theory
摘要
Abstract
The market⁃oriented transition of China and Soviet Union has chosen different paths and their economic performance is largely different. Then, does the difference in their transition effect mainly emanate from the different“initial condition” for their transition or from different selected paths and policies for the transition? Based on“latecomer advantage” theory, by using counterfactual analysis framework, and comparative analysis of“the initial condition” for the transition of China and former Soviet Union shows that, from the perspective of the structure and system formed by the history and strategy of the industrialization, there are many similarities at the initial period of the market⁃oriented transition between the two countries, that there is not big difference in“the initial condition”, that both former Soviet Union and China have“latecomer advantage”. Furthermore, former Soviet Union has better realization condition for “the latecomer advantage”, but former Soviet Union does not bring her “latecomer advantage” into fully play. Therefore, the effect of market⁃oriented transition does not mainly depend on“the initial condition” for the transition but rely on “the path selection” for the transition. The success in the market⁃oriented transition of China should be chiefly owed to the selection of proper transition path and suitable reform policies.关键词
市场化转型/后发优势/初始条件/转型路径/路径选择/改革政策/中苏比较/渐进式改革/休克疗法Key words
market-oriented transition/latecomer advantage/initial condition/transition path/path selection/reform policy/comparison between China and former Soviet Union/progressive reform/shock therapy分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
隋福民..市场化转型成效取决于“初始条件”还是“路径选择”？∗--基于“后发优势”理论的中苏比较研究[J].西部论坛,2014,(6):69-80,12.基金项目
中国社会科学院经济研究所课题“中国和俄罗斯经济发展道路的历史比较研究” （）
