电力系统自动化Issue(18)：27-32,98,7.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20131125002
计及预测误差相关性的风电出力不确定性集合建模与评估
Modeling and Evaluation of Uncertainty Set Considering Wind Power Prediction Error Correlation
摘要
Abstract
Advanced robust scheduling technology is one of the most economical and effective means to deal with output uncertainty.Usually,uncertainty set is used for describing the prediction error of wind power generation.It does not require the probability distribution of prediction errors and can cover all realizations of wind generation prediction errors with given confidence level.In our work,existing models of uncertainty set are evaluated using real data in wind farm operations.The study shows that unreasonable uncertainty sets may occur if the correlation of prediction errors is neglected.Furthermore,a criterion of wind generation uncertainty is proposed,based on which a new ellipsoidal modeling method is derived to incorporate the correlation of prediction errors.Given a confidence level in the sense of probability,the proposed uncertainty set can greatly reduce the measure of prediction errors with convexity guarantee. This facilitates mitigating conservativeness of robust optimization decision making process in power systems.关键词
风电预测/不确定性建模/不确定性测度/误差相关性/鲁棒优化Key words
wind power prediction/uncertainty modeling/uncertainty measure/error correlation/robust optimization引用本文复制引用
孙健,刘斌,刘锋,魏韡,周作春,袁清芳..计及预测误差相关性的风电出力不确定性集合建模与评估[J].电力系统自动化,2014,(18):27-32,98,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51007041,51321005) （51007041,51321005）
北京电力公司科技项目(5202011304HH)。@@@@This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51007041,No.51321005) （5202011304HH）
