电力系统自动化Issue(6)：4-10,74,8.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20140409004
组合数值天气预报与地基云图的光伏超短期功率预测模型
A Very Short-term Prediction Model for Photovoltaic Power Based on Numerical Weather Prediction and Ground-based Cloud Images
摘要
Abstract
To mitigate the influence brought about by the sudden decay of generation power due to the shading of the photovoltaic power station by cloud banks and improve very short-term prediction accuracy and the duration,a photovoltaic very short-term power predicting model is proposed by combining numerical weather forecast with ground-based cloud images. First,the model uses photovoltaic power very short-term predicting method under the approaching clear sky condition to predict the next four hours” photovoltaic power generation.Then,the cloud banks data of numerical weather forecast and sudden decay due to the cloud shaded photovoltaic power plants is used to predict the sudden decay in the forthcoming four hours and for approaching correction to improve the accuracy of very short-term prediction of the photovoltaic power.The results obtained show that the proposed model is feasible and practical as an accurate method for photovoltaic power plants 0~4 h very short-term prediction.关键词
数值天气预报/地基云图/云团跟踪/光伏功率预测/超短期Key words
numerical weather prediction/ground-based cloud images/cloud tracking/photovoltaic power prediction/very short-term引用本文复制引用
朱想,居蓉蓉,程序,丁宇宇,周海..组合数值天气预报与地基云图的光伏超短期功率预测模型[J].电力系统自动化,2015,(6):4-10,74,8.基金项目
国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)资助项目(2011AA05A104) （863计划）
国家电网公司科技项目(NY71-12-008)。This work is supported by National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (863 Program)(No.2011AA05A104) and State Grid Corporation of China(No.NY71-12-008) （NY71-12-008）
