东南大学学报（英文版）Issue(2)：276-281,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1003-7985.2015.02.021
基于变量相互影响的高速公路基本路段事故预测模型构建方法
Construction of crash prediction model of freeway basic segment based on interactive influence of explanatory variables
摘要
Abstract
In order to improve the prediction precision of the safety performance function (SPF ) of freeway basic segments,design and crash data of 640 segments are collected from different institutions.Three negative binomial (NB ) regression models and three generalized negative binomial (GNB ) regression models are built to prove that the interactive influence of explanatory variables plays an important role in fitting goodness.The effective use of the GNB model in analyzing the interactive influence of explanatory variables and predicting freeway basic segments is demonstrated.Among six models,the two models (one is the NB model and the other is the GNB model.)which consider the interactive influence of the annual average daily traffic (AADT ) and length are more reasonable for predicting results.Furthermore,a comprehensive study is carried out to prove that when considering the interactive influence,the NB and GNB models have almost the same fitting performance in estimating the crashes,among which the GNB model is slightly better for prediction performance.关键词
事故/高速公路/事故预测模型/解释变量交互影响/广义负二项模型Key words
crash/freeway/safety performance function (SPF )/interactive influence of explanatory variables/generalized negative binomial (GNB)分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
王晓飞,李新伟,符锌砂,赵立萱,刘小峰..基于变量相互影响的高速公路基本路段事故预测模型构建方法[J].东南大学学报（英文版）,2015,(2):276-281,6.基金项目
The National Natural Science Foundation of China （No．51408229，51278202），the Program of the Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education，Tongji Uni-versity （No．K201204）， the Science and Technology Program of Guangdong Communication Department （No．2013-02-068）． （）
