电网技术Issue(2)：523-529,7.DOI:10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2015.02.035
基于雷电定位系统监测数据的雷暴云趋势预测
Nowcasting of the Thunderstorm Trend Based on Data Collected by Lightning Location System
摘要
Abstract
Previous studies of lightning prewarning failed to give the changes of the cloud-to-ground(CG) flash density and the CG frequency with the evolution and extinction of a thunderstorm in the concerned area, which had great influence in the real-time lightning trip probability study, with important significance in transmission line lightning trip prewarning. Firstly, the target area was divided into equal-area grids by 0.01° × 0.01°, and then the data measured by lightning location system in every 15 minutes were divided into three sections, in each section, cluster analysis methods were used to exclude spurious points, at the basis of cluster recognition, the cluster centroid motion model was built through linear fit and the cluster centroid for each cluster centroid of three successive time periods was predicted, and the thunderstorm cover range was learned in statistical analysis of each grid flash density at that time, while calculating the flash density of other grids with inverse distance weight approach; Finally, using historical data of Hainan power grid lightning location system, the algorithm was proved to be effective. The result shows that the relative error of cluster group centroid prediction within the future 15min is less than 20%, and a basic agreement between the actual lightning range and prediction range is validated.关键词
雷暴云/预警/雷电定位系统Key words
thunderstorm/nowcasting/lightning location system分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
高文胜,张博文,周瑞旭,符祥干,陈钦柱,黄松,梁亚峰..基于雷电定位系统监测数据的雷暴云趋势预测[J].电网技术,2015,(2):523-529,7.基金项目
国家科技支撑计划重大项目(2013BAA01B00)。 （2013BAA01B00）
